After July’s 13% energy price rise pushed bills to £1,862, forecasters are already predicting another increase in October. Here is everything we know so far — and what you can do right now to protect yourself.
📅 Key date to know
Ofgem will confirm the October 2026 price cap by 26 August 2026. Until then all figures are forecasts — however current predictions point to a further rise just as winter begins.
In this guide
Where is the energy price cap now?
The current energy price cap covers July to September 2026. It rose by 13% on 1 July — the largest single quarterly rise since the energy crisis of 2022 — pushing typical annual bills to £1,862 for a household paying by direct debit.
The rise was driven by higher wholesale gas prices caused by disruption to global energy supply routes following the Middle East conflict. Around 33 million domestic energy accounts are currently on standard variable tariffs and consequently paying at or near the capped rate.
What is the October 2026 price cap forecast?
Cornwall Insight — the energy consultancy whose forecasts have historically tracked closely to Ofgem’s confirmed figures — currently predicts the October 2026 cap at around £1,899 per year for a typical household paying by direct debit. This would represent a further rise of approximately £37 above the current July cap.
Other major forecasters broadly agree. As of the week beginning 6 July 2026 the average prediction from EDF, British Gas and E.ON Next points to a rise to around £1,678 — though this figure uses Ofgem’s updated typical consumption values which assume households use less energy than before. Consequently the two numbers are describing the same forecast using different baselines.
Important: These are forecasts not confirmed figures. Wholesale energy prices are currently volatile due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty — consequently the confirmed October cap could land above or below current predictions. Ofgem will announce the final figure by 26 August 2026.
Why October headlines will be confusing — and how to read them
From October 2026 Ofgem is updating its definition of a “typical household” to reflect the fact that UK households are now using less energy than before — around 7% less electricity and 17% less gas compared to the previous review in 2023.
This means the same October forecast reads as approximately £1,709 under the new definitions — rather than £1,899 under the old ones. Consequently some headlines in late August may report that the cap has “fallen” compared to July’s £1,862. This would be misleading.
The key point: The unit rates — what you actually pay per kWh of gas and electricity — are not falling. Only the “typical household” assumption is changing. Consequently your actual bill depends on how much energy you use, not what the headline annual figure says. If unit rates rise in October your bills will rise — regardless of what the headline cap figure looks like.
Why could bills rise again in October?
The October cap is based on wholesale energy prices during an assessment window that runs from 19 May to 18 August 2026. Wholesale gas prices rose sharply earlier in the year following the Middle East conflict and remain elevated compared to early 2026 levels — consequently the assessment window captures a period of relatively high wholesale costs.
🌍 Middle East conflict — disrupted LNG supply routes and kept wholesale gas prices elevated through the assessment window
📈 High assessment window costs — the window opened on 19 May shortly after wholesale prices had already risen substantially
❄️ Winter demand increase — while not directly affecting the cap level higher winter usage means the same unit rates translate to higher bills
🔌 Network cost pressures — the costs of maintaining gas and electricity infrastructure continue to rise
Why October feels worse than July
Even a modest rise in the October cap will feel more painful than July’s larger rise — because October is when the UK heating season begins. During the summer months households use significantly less gas for heating — consequently a higher unit rate has limited impact on actual spending.
From October onwards gas usage climbs steeply as temperatures fall. Consequently the same unit rate that costs relatively little in August costs significantly more in November and December when boilers run for hours each day. Cornwall Insight’s Craig Lowrey has specifically warned that the October rise may feel harder than July’s for this reason.
When will Ofgem confirm the October price cap?
Ofgem will confirm the October 2026 price cap by 26 August 2026. The announcement will confirm the exact unit rates and standing charges that will apply from 1 October to 31 December 2026.
We will update this article as soon as the confirmed figures are announced. Furthermore we will email our subscribers with the confirmed rates and what they mean for your bills — so sign up below if you haven’t already.
What should I do right now?
If you are currently on a standard variable tariff you are already paying at the July cap rate. If the October forecast proves accurate you could face a further rise from 1 October. Here is what to consider:
Compare fixed deals now
Some fixed tariffs are currently available at or below the July cap rate. Locking in a fixed deal before October means you pay the same rate through winter regardless of what Ofgem announces on 26 August. Furthermore fixed deals available now reflect current market conditions — which could change before October.
Check what tariff you’re on
Log into your energy supplier account and confirm whether you are on a standard variable tariff or a fixed deal. If you are on a variable tariff any October rise will affect your bills automatically from 1 October.
Reduce your usage before winter
With higher unit rates confirmed through at least October now is a good time to check your home’s insulation, bleed radiators and service your boiler before the heating season begins. Small improvements in efficiency have a greater financial impact at higher unit rates.
Set a reminder for 26 August
The confirmed October cap will be announced by 26 August. Set a calendar reminder to check back — or sign up to our email list and we’ll notify you the moment it’s confirmed.
Compare fixed energy deals now
Lock in a fixed rate before October. Free, no obligation, takes 2 minutes.
Compare energy deals →Related guides
Energy price rise July 2026 — what happened and what to do now → What is a unit rate in energy? → What is a direct debit in energy? →Don’t wait until October — compare now
Compare gas and electricity deals for your postcode. Free, no obligation, takes 2 minutes.
Compare energy deals →Written by the FastSwitch team · Last updated July 2026
FastSwitch is a free UK energy comparison service. We may earn a commission when you switch via our site — this never affects the deals or prices you see. October 2026 price cap figures are forecasts only — Ofgem will confirm the final figure by 26 August 2026. This article will be updated when confirmed figures are available.